By Richard Baehr

I have always been fascinated by numbers, so looking at data on the virus spread and its lethality is revealing, and also raises lots of questions I cannot answer, since I am not a virologist, nor am I on top of what each country is doing to contain the spread of the virus. There are several very good sources of information on the numbers if this interests you.

A 17-year-old prodigy from Seattle has created an excellent database, which updates every minute.  Here is an article on the young software designer.  Johns Hopkins University, recipient of the largest gift ever made by one person to a university (Michael Bloomberg’s gift of $1.8 billion) also has good data.

The country by country information, especially when examined over time, suggests that there are some disparities. First: the incidence rate, that is, the number of cases compared to a country’s population. This virus began in China, and grew rapidly there, particularly in one area of the country, but case volume now has leveled off with very small growth in the caseload, and well over half recovered. This is encouraging, or should be; it suggests containment is possible.

Now, of course, an authoritarian country has tools at its disposal democracies do not. In any case, China has a total caseload of 80,000 that has been quite steady for a few weeks. China has a population of 1.4 billion. In other words, 1 in every 17,000 Chinese have come down with the disease. Obviously, the incidence rate in the Wuhan area is higher than the national incidence rate in China — maybe more than 25 times higher. This is also the area where the disease spread rapidly since almost nobody early on knew what they were dealing with.  

Yesterday, Germany’s Angela Merkel predicted that 60-70% of that country’s population of roughly 85 million would come down with the virus. Really? Based on what?  1 in 17,000 in China but 7 in 10 in Germany?

In the United States, the caseload has grown tenfold in little over a week. That is a very high growth rate. We now have just over 1,000 identified cases (the number infected is undoubtedly considerably higher since few people have been tested). The US population is close to 330 million, meaning our incidence rate so far is 1 in 330,000, about 1/20th of China’s rate. In other words, if our incidence rate grew to match China’s before leveling off, we would get to about 20,000 cases. If our rate grew to match that of the Wuhan area, it might be 500,000 cases. Why the US incidence rate should grow to match the Wuhan area rate is not at all clear to me. Some of the data in the country tables seems suspect. Why would Russia have only 15 cases? The world’s highest incidence rate could be in Iran, if the official numbers represent just a small fraction of the actual caseload as some non-government sources in the country suggest. Iranian leadership has been decimated by the virus, which has not occurred anywhere else.

This year’s “regular” flu season has been a busy one. This is from yesterday’sNew York Times, which makes clear that what we are now seeing with the coronavirus is not a repeat of the 1918 “Spanish Flu” nor as prevalent as a regular seasonal flu.

“But so far this year, the annual epidemic of seasonal flu in the United States is proving much more devastating than the coronavirus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that there have been at least 34 million infected with flu this season, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths. So far, coronavirus has killed 27 people in the United States.”

So, as many people have died from the seasonal flu in the United States, as would be affected by the coronavirus, if the incidence rate were 20 times higher than it is so far.

Several countries are experiencing higher incidence rates than China.  Among them are South Korea, Italy, Iran. These countries are also experiencing highly differentiated death rates from the disease. The head of the WHO stated the other day that the death rate is 3.4% worldwide. I think he is wrong, and the real death rate is likely lower. 

In China, the death rate was near 5% in Hubei Province, which includes Wuhan. But in other areas of the country, the death rate has been 1%.  South Korea, which has tested a large number of people, has a high incidence rate, but a death rate of only 0.75%, less than 1%. Italy has a similar caseload as South Korea, but a death rate nearly ten times higher. Both are developed countries, with similar populations and population density. I won’t even try to explain this wide gap. I can’t. There are apparently different strains of the virus, with different degrees of lethality. Cultural differences and differing government policies on quarantining, testing, and treating victims could all be contributors.  

In the cases around the world, the death rate is far higher for those 70 and older, than for those under that age who contract the disease. It is even higher among those 80 and older and highest among those 90 and older. Young children do not seem to catch the virus. Most of the deaths in the United States so far have been associated with one nursing home in a Seattle suburb. The typical nursing home population has a median age in the mid 80s. 

You will note that I have left politics completely out of this analysis, which is where I think they belong.  Our own government should become as familiar as it can with what other countries have done to contain the virus, especially if they have had some success doing so.  Taiwan has had a particularly positive experience:

Singapore had an initial burst of cases, which has not grown much. They early on issued some directives, which as this article suggests might be difficult to replicate in most places.

News coverage of stories like this are similar to stories concerning natural disasters. The media flood the zone with nonstop coverage. For this virus, the coverage undoubtedly has increased fears among many people. The stock market collapse and concern about an economic decline are also worrisome. If you work in the travel sector, the energy business, or the restaurant industry, things have gotten tough very quickly. 

It is troubling for a respected national leader like Merkel to make the comments she did. Best I know she is an economist, not a scientist nor a virologist. I cannot predict how many people in the US or anywhere else will be impacted by this. Here are a few things to consider: every day in the United States, 6,000-7,000 people die (over 2 million a year). In China, about 25,000 die every day (9 million a year). The great majority of those who die every year in both countries are older people. The virus added about 50 deaths per day in China for two months. Italy has just over 1,000 deaths a day from all causes. In the past few weeks, that number has grown by close to 50 per day from the virus. In other words, the Wuhan area of China experienced the same supplemental death toll from the virus for about 60 days that Italy has now experienced for close to two weeks. It is understandable why Italy has chosen a quarantine type approach for the entire country, as case volumes grow, and the death toll climbs.

In short, the world is not showing signs that the end is near (though it may be for some of us). The virus is a scary thing for many people for good reasons, and precaution is a good thing, as are active measures to deal with the economic fallout as well as testing, and treatment and speedier than normal adoption of any vaccines which prove effective. I do not have the scientific background to know whether warmer months will slow the growth of the virus, as some have argued.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/coronavirus_by_the_numbers.html

 There are now 2,078 coronavirus cases in Germany, statistics from the Johns Hopkins University showed on Thursday.

Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for disease control had published its latest figures on Wednesday evening, showing 1,567 confirmed cases and 3 deaths related to the virus.

reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-cases-idUSKBN20Z1KX

The media and pro-migration politicians said that there was no way to protect Europe’s border against so many migrants and that building fences would not help us.

Now, Greeks are holding thousands of migrants back on the Turkish side of the border, behind a fence that has proven very effective.

They claimed it was impossible to stop boats from landing on Greek islands, such as Lesbos.

The Greek Navy is successfully stopping migrant boats, showing just how possible it is with the right will and proper equipment.

We were also told that Hungary’s approach to the migrant crisis, such as building a fence and halting all illegal migration, was against European values.

Now, in silent astonishment we hear European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praising Greece for being the “shield of Europe”.

The moral superiority game that the European elites demonstrated so perfectly five years ago is over. But for those promoting sound migration, there can be no sense of real vindication until Europe ensures this can never happen again.

Europe’s only option is to follow the Greek model, which was first championed by the Hungarians, a model symbolized by the ugly word “wall”.

But in reality, the word “wall” is a neutral word, and walls have served a valuable function throughout history.

Of course, a wall can be perceived as a symbol of tyranny and slavery, such as the case as the one erected in Berlin. But for the most part in history, walls have served a noble goal, such as the Limes Germanicus or the Great Wall of China, which served as shields against barbarians on the frontier of civilization.

When the border of civilization in Europe fell at the end of antiquity, the so-called Dark Ages followed for several hundred years.

In a time of peril, the wall represents a realistic solution, in tandem with other smart security measures, to one of Europe’s most vexing problems.

Walls may have not necessary in the 1990s, but they are necessary now. Times are changing.

The Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel countries are in the center of ethnic and religious tensions, ubiquitous corruption and nepotism, combined with dreadfully run economies that cannot and do not secure decent livelihoods for their rapidly growing populations.

Any spark could easily ignite the region, whether due to falling oil prices, a fluctuation in world food prices, or a prolonged drought. Ongoing wars along with religious and ethnic tension have already led to the collapse of many governments.

Our capability to get these countries on their feet is no sure thing.

Yes, it would be better to solve problems on the spot, and we try to accomplish that very goal. After all, it is in our best interest to stabilize the Middle East.

The simply reality is we just cannot do it.

We can deliver a thousand tons of rice anywhere in the world, but we cannot build institutions, reconcile ethnic strife, ensure security, and deliver sustainable economic growth.

We cannot create another Marshall Plan for several hundred million people who are simply not like Germans, Dutch or Italians after World War II. We do not know how to do this because it is difficult to imagine the conditions in those countries, which have historically very little to speak of in terms of democracy or human rights. Many have governments still dictated by sharia law.

Furthermore, we have also lost the ability to proceed realistically and pragmatically. Bureaucratic structures and endless decision-making processes make it nearly as impossible to build a highway in the Czech Republic as it is to build a state in Afghanistan.

All of these inconvenient realities points to the necessity of a wall, and that is unfortunately about all we can do.

The current situation has no ethically unambiguous solution. Migrants trapped on the border between the Greek and Turkish police can arouse compassion. At the same time, it is clear that opening the border would have disastrous consequences.

It is tragic, but in Turkey, these refugees face no immediate threat to life and their situation is certainly much better than the situation of three million refugees in South Sudan.

The four million refugees in Turkey certainly do not live in refugee camps. Actually, only 2 percent of this number of refugees live in such conditions.

According to the current United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data, the remaining 98 percent live in cities or suburban areas. Most refugees have been living in Turkey for years, having normal lives, working, and sending their children to school. In some cities, they make up a quarter of the population, just as Ukrainians make up about a quarter of the population of some Polish cities.

Almost one and a half million Syrian refugees have credit cards and a monthly income financed from the EU resources to cover their basic needs. This does not mean that being a refugee in Turkey is easy, but it is unfair to only show just the images of refugees in freezing temperatures huddled by fires.

In the end, we either choose a wall or we will be importing a disaster Europe will be unable to face. Now, all we need is the will to build one.

rmx.news/article/commentary/border-wall-for-europe-might-be-our-only-option

“The WHO has assessed that Covid-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.” This was announced by the director general of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, at a press conference in Geneva.

The WHO is also “deeply concerned about both the alarming levels of diffusion and severity, and the alarming levels of inaction” against the Coronavirus. However, they said they were “grateful for the measures taken in Iran, Italy and South Korea” to slow down the virus and control the Covid-19 epidemic.

President Trump has ordered a complete travel ban from European nations for the next 30 days (starting at midnight on Friday). The ban does not include the United Kingdom.

The US meanwhile has scaled back the largest transfer of troops in Europe on the occasion of the Defender Europe 20 exercises. It is taking no precautions for its soldiers faced with the Coronavirus epidemic and has declared deliberations as classified.

Italian League chief Matteo Salvini has called for a protection zone for all of Europe because of the spread of the virus. This is necessary not only “because the virus is a threat that needs to be addressed with the necessary determination”, but also “to avoid the misery of the trade wars that are being prepared,” the former Italian interior minister told Italian daily Corriere della Sera on Wednesday.

Some EU countries were considering additional controls for the import of Italian cheese, requested the disinfection of truck wheels or wanted to stop the import of furniture and machinery from Italy. “The virus will not get past it and is spreading in several countries. So I wonder why we are not thinking of a European red zone,” he said.

The Italian government issued a decree Tuesday night that declared all of Italy to be the so-called red zone. The individual’s freedom of movement was massively restricted.

Accordingly, citizens are only allowed to leave their home communities for good reason. This includes the way to work. Bars and restaurants must close at 6 pm and a minimum distance of one meter from the guests should be observed. Kindergartens, schools and universities across the country are closed until April 3. Church services are also not allowed to take place during this time.

Austria imposed similar measures and prohibited all outdoor events with more than 500 and indoor events with more than 100 participants. The government also introduced border controls and accordingly, only those who can show a medical certificate can travel to Austria from Italy since it has the highest number of Covid-19 deaths outside of China.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) made a public statement on the Corona crisis on Wednesday . “The virus has arrived in Europe, it’s here, we all have to understand that,” she said in Berlin. She appealed to the population to help stop the virus from spreading.

She told her parliamentary group that 60-70 percent of all Germans will catch the virus. Most of them will fall ill and at a 1 percent death rate this means that more than 500 000 Germans will die from it. The Chancellor did not say how she would try to prevent that.

freewestmedia.com/2020/03/12/covid-19-who-declares-a-pandemic/

In a sign that Greek border crisis has the potential to spiral out of control, Turkish fighter jets flew missions in northern Evros at the Greek-Turkish land border on Wednesday, which followed reports of Turkish special forces firing live ammunition at Greek officers operating at the border last night.

Both incidents are signs that Turkey appears set to ratchet up tensions with Greece, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan refusing to close the border for thousands of migrants seeking to enter Europe.

Ekathimerini reports that a pair of Turkish F-16s conducted flight maneuvers in Greek airspace at northern Evros at an altitude between 500 feet (0.15 km) and 10,000 feet (ca. 3 km) at 2:50pm today.

Not long after, at 3:25 p.m., another two Turkish F-16s flew  at an altitude of 26,000 feet (ca. 8 km) over the Kalogeroi islets in the central Aegean Sea.

Video of the jets roaring over the Greek border were posted to social media.

In a separate incident involving a Turkish Coast Guard rammed a Greek Coast Guard vessel off the island of Kos, Shipping Minister Yiannis Plakiotakis said Turkey’s aim was clearly “to provoke an incident in the Aegean.”  Turkish special forces also allegedly fired at Greek police at crossing point on the Evros River last night. Greek police were on patrol on the Greek side of the river when they say the Turkish side fired shots, which they say were not warning shots. No injuries were reported.

Greek police did not return fire, saying they were trying to remain clam despite the potentially life-threatening actions of the Turks.

rmx.news/article/article/video-turkish-fighter-jets-roar-over-greek-border-reports-of-shots-fired-by-turkish-special-forces

German Bundeswehr three-star General Alfons Mais has placed himself into voluntary quarantine after coming into contact with another military official suspected of having coronavirus.

The 57-year-old, who holds the highest general’s rank in the German army, attended a conference put on by the U.S. Army in Europe and came into contact with U.S. Lieutenant General Christopher Cavoli, who has also been put under quarantine.

Twenty-four senior military officials from various NATO countries also attended the conference, which took place in the German city of Wiesbaden last week, among them Italian General Salvatore Farina, the head of the Italian army, who tested positive for the virus over the weekend, German tabloid Bild reports.

General Mais is not the only member of the Bundeswehr to be placed under quarantine, according to Bild, which said that the Bundeswehr academy has also been put on lockdown due to a confirmed case in one of its barracks.

Soldiers who live in the barracks will no longer be allowed to leave the accommodation while soldiers who live in residences outside of the academy have been told to self isolate in their own homes.

German troops have also been commanded to avoid public transport and all internal and external events have been suspended.

Elsewhere in Europe, General Jaroslaw Mika, the commander of Poland’s armed forces has also been infected.

The confirmed case of Italian General Farina comes as Italy has seen a surge in coronavirus cases in recent weeks and has become one of the leading countries for cases behind only China with over 10,000 confirmed cases and 631 deaths as of Tuesday afternoon.

Several other high-profile Italians have also tested positive for the virus, including the leader of the left-wing Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti who confirmed his diagnosis.

“Well then, it has arrived. I too have the coronavirus,” the Democratic leader said on Saturday but added that he was feeling fine and had isolated himself in his home.

Germany, while having over a thousand confirmed cases of the virus, has reported far fewer fatalities, claiming its first two deaths earlier this week.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/11/top-german-army-general-self-quarantines-coronavirus-fears/

Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, predicted that 70% of her country’s population or 58 million people are likely to be infected with the coronavirus. 1,500 Germans have been infected to date.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/491083

Last Sunday, around 5:00 p.m., a 33-year-old man from Munich drove together with his wife in his Honda car down the street Gernotstraße in the direction of the street Mittlerer Ring. He had to stop his car at the crossroads to Burgunderstraße because a pedestrian suddenly stepped in front of his car and then abruptly slammed his hands on the bonnet. Thereupon the 33-year-old stepped out to clarify the situation. This led to a physical confrontation between the two men on the road. During this, the pedestrian pulled out an object and hit the left side of the 33-year-old’s head. The Munich resident suffered a heavily bleeding injury. According to witnesses, the object is said to have been a kind of hatchet.

Following the crime, the previously unknown male perpetrator fled on the street Gernotstraße in the direction of the street Karl-Theodor-Straße.

The injured man was then taken to hospital by the rescue service. After an operation, he is still undergoing inpatient treatment. He suffered no life-threatening injuries. His wife, who was in the car during the crime, was not injured.

The criminal investigations were taken over by the homicide department ( Department 11) in close cooperation with the public prosecutor’s office Munich. In the late afternoon of the 9th of March 2020, after a series of investigations, the initial suspicion of the murder against a 34-year-old Iraqi living in Munich was confirmed. In the course of the forensic measures carried out at the scene of the crime, a fingerprint of the 34-year-old could be found on the bonnet.

At the request of the Munich public prosecutor’s office, the investigating judge responsible issued an arrest warrant for attempted murder against the 34-year-old Iraqi on the evening of the 9th of March 2020.

On the tenth of March 2020 at about 12:05 p.m. the accused was arrested in the city area by task forces of the Munich police headquarters. The accused is now being brought before the investigating judge. The criminal investigation will be continued by the Department 11.

politikstube.com/im-bunten-muenchen-iraker-34-attackiert-autofahrer-33-mit-hackebeil/