By Andrea Widburg
Biden is the least inspiring candidate in at last a century, while President Trump has an extraordinarily enthusiastic base that is, if possible, much larger than it was in 2016. Still, the polls have been practically unanimous: Biden will win in a landslide. The polls predicted the same for Hillary in 2016, so we’re suspicious, but the confluence of awful things that’s been 2020 still makes Trump supporters just a little nervous. However, two election analysts are predicting that Trump will beat the pants and double masks off Joe Biden.
Matthew Tyrmand is a numbers guy. He got his start working for almost ten years on Wall Street as a hedge fund portfolio manager who analyzed and traded healthcare and telecommunications stocks. He then became a business consultant. After that, he worked for American Transparency, which has dedicated itself to putting all government spending in one place, information you can find at Open The Books (a fascinating website).
In 2016, Tyrmand looked at the numbers and concluded that Trump would get 311 Electoral College votes, a prediction that was off only by 5 (Trump got 306 EC votes). This time around, Tyrmand thinks that Trump will get between 342 and 386 EC votes:
[A]ll the conventional swing states (NH PA MI WI NV AZ) will go red.
Some of the states purported to be swing states are not even in play this cycle in my view as they are so firmly in the “stop burning down the cities” camp (FL OH GA NC) that they will be defended easily.
States that should not have been in play as they have been consistently dem the last 30-40 years are slam dunk GOP red now (MN NM) and bc of how coercive and disgusting the political/academic/media left has behaved even some states no one is talking about are in play (VA OR CT NJ).
My one crap shoot state is CO- although I think it will follow through red in the pending landslide especially with a 45pc+ national Hispanic electorate voting for DJT (28pc in 2016)- but it is in the grand scheme moving from purple to blue (“the Colorado blueprint” worked- hats off to the Dems on that one).
The popular vote will be a blowout- 10pc+ win for our presidential incumbent with CA IL NY MA MD WA coming in closer in the R/D divide than any other time since the Reagan’84 blowout, with major impact from a sea change positive delta in the black vote going from ~8pc in 2016 to over 20pc or even 25pc this cycle.
I like those numbers. Additionally, while Tyrmand acknowledges the possibility of fraud and anticipates initial chaos, he thinks Trump’s margin of victory will be so big that it will drown out the fraud. As he says,
Ultimately, as it always does, it will come down to turnout. And as such, given the enthusiasm gap, it will be a landslide of almost Reagan’84 proportions.
And just to make you more optimistic, Tyrmand also believes Republicans will take the House back. It’s a long analysis, and I recommend you read it all.
Nor is Tyrmand alone in seeing good things. Inan Dogan, an industrial engineer who holds a Ph.D. in economics, claims that the “Polls Are Biased: Trump Will Again Deliver A Stunning Upset.” In a long, number-rich post, Dogan takes apart the latest pro-Democrat vote forecast from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. According to Dogan, the polls are wrong, and their bias is heightened by the fact that they reflect people’s concerns about Trump having caught the Wuhan virus.
Dogan believes that the pivotal state is not Ohio or Pennsylvania but is, instead, Florida. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has a 3.4 point lead in Florida. That lead, however, appeared when Trump was diagnosed and is already shrinking rapidly. Dogan, therefore, predicts a Trump win by .6 points.
Having disposed of the pivotal Florida vote, Dogan examines the other states, in each case adjusting the poll results to reflect what he believes are errors in the current polling. Although Dogan is not as optimistic about the battleground states as Tyrmand is, he still believes that Trump will win enough battleground states to give him an Electoral College victory.
Dogan says that, even if Trump can’t win Pennsylvania (where fraud is rife, aided by both the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and the United States Supreme Court), he can still win by taking Michigan and Florida. Alternatively, Trump can win with Florida plus either Wisconsin or Minnesota. At bottom, while FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 87% chance of winning, Dogan thinks the odds favor Trump, albeit not by much.
This is a crazy election year, but Biden’s hidin’, Trump’s smiling, the grassroots rallies are amazing, and the Democrats are depressed. That’s all got to mean that something good will happen, right?